Tomato planting in the Netherlands is "back to normal". Winter planting is also underway in Belgium. In Italy, tomato shortages are causing high prices due to delays in the market due to excessive heat and drought in Sicily. Tomato prices in Germany are rising as supply from several countries has slightly decreased. The tomato market in France has been completely turned upside down since the beginning of this week, with tomato consumption falling sharply due to low winter temperatures. After Turkey, Israel's main supplier, banned tomato exports, local supply and imports from the Netherlands and Poland have alleviated Israel's tomato shortage to some extent. Spain has seen strong demand and stable prices at the start of the tomato season, and good weather in major growing areas.

Tomato prices and demand in North America are relatively strong, as the two hurricanes that recently hit central Florida have affected tomato growth and caused a shortage of tomatoes. The Yucatan Peninsula, northern Honduras and Guatemala all suffered flooding from Tropical Storm Sarah, and greenhouses were affected. The EU ban on the use of pesticides, coupled with rising temperatures in Morocco's main growing areas, has forced growers to fight pests. South Africa’s tomato supply is transitioning from north to south, with lower volumes, but volumes are set to increase in December.

Europe: Retail prices and consumer insights

The European Commission now publishes monthly overviews of tomato prices for Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and France, including new retail data. An AI-driven analysis of tomato consumption in Europe shows that over the past decade, tomato cultivation has fallen by 700,000 tonnes, while imports have only increased by 400,000 tonnes.

Germany is a case in point, where tomato consumption has increased by 10% despite a 2% population increase. Prices have risen by 65% ​​over the past decade, with inflation accounting for 30%. German consumers appear willing to pay more for tomatoes. Significantly, German retail prices closely follow the pricing of the main Dutch cooperatives, suggesting that German retailers effectively influence cooperative pricing.

The Dutch warn that sustainability and regulatory requirements, such as CSRD requirements and stricter packaging regulations, have led to rising supply chain costs. With production no longer increasing, managing these costs will be a key challenge.

Netherlands and Belgium: Dutch tomato cultivation ‘back to normal’

Netherlands and Belgium: Dutch tomato cultivation ‘back to normal’

Dutch tomato cultivation ‘back to normal’. After problems with the virus and energy costs, summer production has returned to (almost) normal levels. This winter, about three-quarters of greenhouses equipped with artificial lighting have switched on their lights again. An estimated 600 hectares of land are under winter lighting, which is double the area of ​​last winter. A large-scale transition to LED lighting has already taken place with the help of subsidies. Winter cultivation is also underway in Belgium.

In the Netherlands, 70% of winter production consists of vine tomatoes, the remaining 30% of cherry tomatoes and other smaller varieties. In Belgium, beef tomatoes are also available outside the traditional season for the first time.

Since September, prices have been above the five-year average. A slight pullback in prices in early November has been overcome. Last week, the average price at the Belgian auctions rose, while prices for bulk tomatoes have stabilized. Local growers are facing increasing competition, especially from Morocco.

A large part of the tomatoes on the market have been switched to varieties resistant to ToBRFV. Some growers are even switching from one disease-resistant variety to another. It remains a challenge for growers to optimally cultivate these new varieties. Lower yields and sometimes taste problems are reported. Especially in the cultivation of specialty tomatoes, there are still cases where resistant varieties are not used. However, in winter cultivation, there are almost no cases where resistant varieties are not used.

Energy remains a key issue. From January 1, 2025, energy taxes will increase in the Netherlands. This is particularly worrying for small growers without combined heat and power systems. Larger growers are investing in a range of energy technologies to spread the risk. Some growers are also considering growing abroad. Both Dutch and Belgian growers are involved in projects in North Africa and Spain, and are conducting research in other regions.

Italy: Shortages and high prices due to drought in Sicily

The Sicilian tomato production season is not yet in full swing, so prices are very high. This is because the planting started late due to excessive heat and drought. Most of the product will arrive in 20 days, so prices will remain high in the coming days. For example, the price of plum tomatoes can easily exceed 4.00 €/kg. So far, there have been no reports of disruptions from foreign competitors such as Morocco, Spain and Turkey. The late start of plantings has allowed for lower temperatures during the growth period, thus avoiding the onset of plant diseases.

The Moro Sardo tomato season is going well. "The added value of a product grown only in Sardinia, respecting centuries-old Sardinian traditions, is being recognized. The lack of production in the tomato category, whether plum, piccadilly or cherry, pushed prices to very high levels, especially during the summer. Now, we see prices stabilizing. The market has returned to the best prices, which also allows us to collaborate with supermarket chains. We have also started to plant a new variety, the Noir, a black tomato that we have been experimenting with for the past three years and intend to expand its acreage".

The weather in recent months seems to have had an impact on the crop of the Camone salad tomatoes, known for their round shape, smooth skin, crunchy taste and long shelf life, delaying the first harvest by about 15 days and causing some agronomic problems, such as the rapid development of the height of the flowering period. "It is a vegetable with a shelf life of about 20 days that is becoming increasingly popular on the Italian market, also thanks to its high visibility and its many uses in the kitchen. The commercial calendar is 11 months, with only one month left (from mid-August to mid-September), although this year we have been forced to extend the commercial gap by a few weeks," reports one of the four Italian growers authorized to grow this vegetable.

A large wholesaler in the northern Italian market says that prices for all varieties of tomatoes have been high over the past few months, which has discouraged consumption. At the beginning of week 47, the average wholesale price for the main varieties ranged between 3 and 3.5 euros per kilo, with plum tomatoes reaching up to 5.5 euros per kilo. The products come from Sicily, an area that was "punished" by drought and high temperatures during the growing period, so the circulation is lower than normal. The wholesaler goes on to say that a few days ago there were also foreign tomatoes from France on the market, of very good quality and at much lower prices, and many wholesalers have switched to them. Tomatoes produced in the Netherlands, on the other hand, have not been popular due to their poor quality and have not met expectations.

Germany: Tomato prices on the rise

Imports from Belgium and the Netherlands have slightly decreased, and imports from Turkey have also fallen. At the same time, shipments from Morocco, Turkey and Spain have increased. Italy has also had more deliveries than before.

In general, market interest has been met. However, price increases have been frequent. The price increase for Belgian goods in particular has led to a noticeable reluctance to buy in some wholesale markets. The limited number of lots in Germany and the relatively high prices have nonetheless attracted enough attention.

France: Market turns, consumption falls sharply

We are at a crossroads in the French tomato season. Many producers are coming to the end of their production season. Last week, prices hovered around 1.80 €/kg for grape tomatoes, 1.50 €/kg for round tomatoes and 1.80 €/kg for fleshy tomatoes. Prices could have been higher, but there were enough volumes on the French market, which prevented them from rising. At the end of the season, there are also differences in quality, which leads to very different prices for different batches.

Although the prices are still lower than those produced across the border, they are still called "correct". Until last week, the Dutch and Belgian production was not large, so prices were relatively stable, at around €2.20/kg per bunch. As for Spanish grapes, they have not yet arrived in France, as domestic consumption still exists and the product is more valuable for export. Therefore, there are not too many imported tomatoes on the French market.

But since the beginning of this week, the market has completely turned upside down. With the onset of winter, consumption has further decreased, and prices on the French market have also fallen. The farmers' blockade has not affected the import of Moroccan and Spanish tomatoes, and the Dutch shipments have entered the market at low prices, exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand.

Israel: Tomato shortage after Turkey's ban alleviated by local supplies

Israel: Tomato shortage after Turkey's ban alleviated by local supplies

The local tomato supply has alleviated Israel's tomato shortage to some extent, while also allowing more tomatoes to be imported from some other countries. Turkey is Israel's traditional tomato supplier, and its export ban has not yet eliminated the impact on Israel. The Netherlands and Poland provide much-needed tomatoes. However, Israeli importers point out that there are challenges in long-distance transportation from Europe to Israel.

Since the ban was implemented, the Israeli government, through the Ministry of Agriculture, has worked to increase the supply of tomatoes. They allowed the duty-free import of 5,000 tons of tomatoes. A few thousand tons were subsequently imported duty-free. Importers point out that despite these efforts, the volume of tomatoes from Israel will be less than normal, leading to higher prices.

Spain: demand and prices at start of season are stable

The Spanish tomato season has had a good start, thanks to the effects of the weather on the quality of the fruit and a good transition between the crops in northern and southern Europe.

"Both Almeria and Murcia tried to start the harvest a little earlier, as last year it was late, but the fact is that the supply of tomatoes has not been very large so far," says a grower and exporter. "The rainfall in Almeria and Murcia was moderate compared to many other parts of the Mediterranean, which were hit by storms, but in October-November there were many cloudy days and slightly lower temperatures than in the past two years. Therefore, the production was not advanced".

The transition of production from central and northern Europe to Spain "was quite smooth, without the overlap that we have seen in other years. So, in general, demand was stable and prices at the start of the season were at an appropriate level for this time of year", says the grower. In any case, the condition of the crops is the main reason for optimism. "This summer was cooler on average than in the past two years, so it was not as tough on the plants, and they are growing well and producing very high yields. Given the good crop conditions, we are confident that we will have a good harvest this season".

In terms of competition with non-EU origins, pressure from Morocco is expected to increase in the first half of the season. Last year, Moroccan tomatoes were available in limited quantities in November-December due to the summer heatwave. However, production then recovered, resulting in an oversupply in the second half of the year. This year, they will start to hit the market on the expected date with normal volumes.

North America: Prices and demand for tomatoes rise after recent hurricanes

Prices are rising in the field tomato market. The two hurricanes that just hit Central Florida have affected tomato production, resulting in a shortage of tomatoes.

However, in early December, the new fields in Immokalee, Florida, will start to be harvested, but the volumes will be reduced due to the weather's impact on planting. By the second week of December, there should be a good volume of grape, cherry, Roma and round tomatoes.

This will weigh on supplies from other regions, such as Mexico and California, both of which are producing tomatoes (although Mexico's acreage is similar to 2023, recent cooler temperatures may slow production, weighing on prices), as well as greenhouse tomatoes.

In terms of pricing, Roma tomatoes are priced around $20/kg; round tomatoes are slightly higher; and greenhouse tomatoes have a wider range of pricing. Production has recovered for Canadian producers and Mexican growers, but not enough to push the market below historical high prices. Meanwhile, flooding in the Yucatán Peninsula, northern Honduras and Guatemala has affected greenhouses due to the impact of Tropical Storm Sarah.

Morocco: EU ban on pesticides, hotter weather, growers struggle with pests

Morocco's tomato export season officially started on October 15 and is scheduled to end at the end of May. The area planted to all varieties in the region remained stable, but the area planted to round tomatoes decreased by nearly 10%, offset by subdivided tomatoes. The average temperature in the Souss Massa region was higher than last season, which was not conducive to phytosanitary measures. Growers continue to bear the brunt of pests and ToBRFV. Growers are tight-lipped about the severity of ToBRFV, but at the start of the season infected plants are quickly replaced with no impact on yields. Treatment is further complicated by the EU ban on certain active ingredients in phytomedicine products. As a result, the quality of Moroccan tomatoes has not been at its best this season.

According to a Moroccan exporter, European demand remains weak, which has reduced tomato prices in both export and local markets. The ban on active ingredients has directly led to an increase in treatment costs of more than 25%. Add to that irrigation and transport costs, and growers’ margins are squeezed. Nevertheless, a grower from Agadir said: "I think the acreage will remain the same until the end of the season. A lot can change in a season, we will see what the winter cycle is like."

From the other side of the Mediterranean, the situation is different. A French importer said that his daily imports mainly come from Morocco, accounting for 97%, and the rest comes from Spain. A Dutch importer said that the demand for Moroccan tomatoes is strong and the prices are high. However, a Moroccan exporter commented: "The volumes are certainly not small, but we are used to exporting more. The same is true for the prices. Despite the difficulties in Spain, the price of Moroccan round tomatoes is still around 0.9 euros per kilo. Given the difficulties in production, there is still a lot of room for prices to increase.

South Africa: Tomato production will increase 'multiple' as December approaches

It is currently a transition period for the tomato supply. Some areas in the north of South Africa that mainly grow in winter have ended tomato cultivation due to the excessively hot summer, passing the baton to growers in the south.

The recent heat wave and rains (unseasonal in some areas such as the Western Cape) have caused problems with the quality of the tomatoes. "By December, production should have doubled," says a trader.

The average price fell by 7% last week to 10.70 rand (0.5 euro) per kilo (12.92 rand per kilo for large tomatoes). A 6-kilo box of first-grade tomatoes can easily go from 50 or 60 rand to 90 or 100 rand, and consumers have reluctantly learned to accept such jumps during the periodic shortages of the past few years.

Reposted from "Protected Agriculture Information Public Account"